So here we are. Let’s get the hashtags out of the way for the filters: #USpol, #Trump, #Republican. Good? Good.

I wrote before on what I would do as a USian with a “dissociate, disappear, disobey” approach to the incoming administration, however long it lasts for (see https://cutie.city/@aaron/113447161966866524). I wanted to write this time about what I’m doing as a human, living outside the US but living in these weird fucking times all the same. The second part of this essay is about what I’m immediately doing for my own physical and mental health, and links to things I’m finding useful – if you want to skip past to that please do.

When you study risk, one of the weird things that you learn early on and may not have anticipated, is recognising both downside *and* upside risk. That is, to remove some of the innate willing to go with the worst possible scenario and then by turn to miss some of the ways in which wins can be found. It’s incredibly hard to do this, especially now, and I was spurred last night by a thread I saw where nearly all of the responders to the question of “what now” were saying “well this is it, we’re fucked, my life is over” and I wanted to bang my head on the desk; not because I don’t empathise with that position but because it presupposes a course of actions that aren’t known and avoids the opportunity for change and progress.

America is now undoubtedly under an autocratic regime, one which _requires_ opting in because of its intense lack of popularity but which has happened at a time when people are very much Not Opting In. The upside risk therefore is in civil disobedience of the scale that the systems they are going to be using for suppression and compliance can’t cope with; I’m foreseeing mass walkouts, wildcat strikes, general strikes and tax withholding at a personal and state level as a form of pushback against a government that above all else wants to grow wealth and which needs to be starved (after all if public services are being cut then what the fuck else are you paying for).

With the walkout of the Paris Climate Accords I see it going in two different directions – on the one hand the insurance companies and pension funds which have already started pushing into climatic resilience will push back hard – possibly at the expense of the insured in the short term though that only gets them so far. On the other hand people being affected directly and indirectly by climate change have an opportunity to see that global goals and agreements aren’t enough, especially when they’re not properly enforced and we might finally see a cultural push-through of the acceptance of climate change and the need for immediate sustained action. I think we’re going to continue to see technological and societal developments in Europe, likely China too, pulling the rest of the world ahead of the US – the America First policy will continue to drive isolationism and leave America struggling to be taken seriously again, same as it was during the first Trump administration. After the midterms the Republicans will likely lose the house again, and the shitshow continues.

Undoubtedly things are going to be more difficult in Ukraine and I agree with the commentary I’ve been hearing that the only way he’s going to move his orange backside is if he gets a Nobel peace prize – and honestly, who gives a shit if it gives Ukraine their country back? I don’t think it will be effective though, I can only see him giving away eastern Ukraine in return for a cessation; so I think Europe is going to have to step up to the mark – maybe South America, South Africa, Canada and APAC too. Russia can’t sustain its losses even with the help its been receiving from North Korea and certainly wouldn’t be able to hold Ukraine militarily without its people giving over (sound familiar?) – that isn’t going to happen.

With regards to marginalised people in the US, that’s where the most immediate pain is likely to be felt. I think the risk of physical violence is high and the likelihood of prosecution low; the legal aspects I’m less worried about because we’ve seen how incompetent Trump’s people are on that front – and though laws and systems are meaningless now they are still the main vehicle by which societal violence is meted, that will be harder to do. I’m worried about the possibility of hormone bans, but we know that can be worked around, and I’m more worried about the possibility of gender reassignment surgery being outlawed. I think Trump will struggle to make that a universal law and we’ll see sanctuary states as we did for abortion, but that they’re both under risk. Ultimately as trans people have to pay (extortionately) for their healthcare this will likely drive them to having to seek treatment overseas, which makes it effectively impossible to do – unless Mexico and Canada provide a route for this. I’m not entirely against that probability but it’s going to depend on the next Canadian election.

Outside the US, I predict a pulling away from the US altogether. 2016-2020 saw us slowly removing investment of time, political energy and capital from the states and 2021-2024 saw a very cautious return to it; if Biden hadn’t enacted the economic policies he did and if Covid hadn’t intervened I think America would have been even more fucked by now. So the upside will be for the rest of the world on this one I’m afraid, and the ability of the European bloc and Asia-Pacific states to read the room better than America has done.

From the perspective of the UK looking both east and west, I still think there’s a chance for movement back to in a leftward direction. The UK is now, after a very long time, centre right and public sentiment doesn’t hold for a return to the Tory years (both Musk and Farage have basement level approval ratings here and Saddiq Khan has been given an unprecedented third term as London mayor). I think we’ll see similar movements in Europe, even in places which right now appear to be skewing in both directions (like Germany); pragmatism has won out before – Poland got very sick of its fascist government very quickly – and with the increasing unrest in the middle east and general rejection of un-egalitarian politics there’s likely to be a resurgence of people-based political movements not encumbered by obscene wealth.

Next: what I’m doing to keep myself sane and useful…